The Sherman Kent School of Intelligence Analysis and its Role in Improving the Analytical Performance of the US Central Intelligence Agency CIA

Abstract

The main goal in current research that the analytical philosophy of Sherman Kent played a major role in developing the craft of intelligence analysis at the American Intelligence Agency, and we point out here that the organized analytical techniques that captured Sherman Kent’s interest are scenarios, competing hypotheses, devil’s advocate, and teams (A, B). ), red team, and low-occurrence/ high-impact probabilities. They all share an important focal point, which is analytical alternatives in order to cover unlikely hypotheses to ensure that no strategic intelligence surprise occurs. We believe here that the period in which Kent lived, in which he witnessed the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and the Cuban missile crisis, which is considered one of the largest intelligence failures in The history of the CIA had left him with a fear of strategic surprise, which was reflected in his philosophy of not ignoring unexpected threats and taking them into account in all the analytical methods he adopted.